THERESA MAY is stuck. She is in a Brexit hole – and there aren’t enough MPs who are prepared to pull her through.
The Westminster Brexit talks have so far yielded no breakthrough.
As one source laments: “People with entrenched positions came to tell us about their entrenched positions.”
But this political paralysis can’t last for ever. By March 29, one of three seemingly impossible things needs to happen.
Either a deal passes the House of Commons, the Government goes for No Deal and Parliament doesn’t stop it or Article 50 is extended or revoked.
Immediately after the Government’s crushing defeat on Tuesday night, a slew of Cabinet ministers thought it inevitable that Mrs May would have to make some kind of concession on the customs union to get a deal through Parliament. But this option has run into two obstacles.
How will this all end? Brexit outcomes explained
GENERAL ELECTION
The PM will face a no confidence vote today. But the DUP have already vowed to back her in it.
So it’s pretty unlikely it will pass, leaving Labour red-faced yet again.
HOW LIKELY? 1/5
GOING SOFT
A cross-party group of MPs are frantically pushing an alternative Soft Brexit plan which could replace Mrs May’s deal.
It would be welcomed by big business – but Brexit voters would be unhappy because it would mean Britain accepting open borders, and following European rules without a say.
HOW LIKELY? 3/5
HARD AS NAILS
Most of the Tory Brexiteers who oppose the PM’s deal want her to return to Brussels and strike a tougher line.
But Eurocrats currently insist it’s impossible to re-open negotiations.
HOW LIKELY? 2/5
REFERENDUM RE-RUN
Dozens of MPs are hell-bent on forcing Mrs May to hold a second referendum so Britain can stay in the EU.
Yet without the support of the Government it’s unlikely the second vote could become a reality.
HOW LIKELY? 3/5
DEAL OR NO DEAL?
If Mrs May cannot pass a deal, the legal default is that we will leave the EU without a deal on March 29.
Despite the legal position, the majority of MPs insist they will take any measure necessary to rule out No Deal.
HOW LIKELY? 4/5
MAY TRIUMPHS – EVENTUALLY
Cabinet ministers remain adamant that a version of Theresa May’s plan will eventually pass the Commons, even after losing last night.
They believe sceptical MPs will lose their nerve as Brexit Day approaches – terrified of either No Deal or a second referendum.
HOW LIKELY? 3/5
Looking for solutions
First, Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell aren’t playing ball. Without their blessing, there is no way you could get 116 Labour MPs to vote with a Tory PM.
As one of those doing the maths on this tells me: “She can’t do a deal without them.”
Secondly, it has become clear that agreeing to a customs union would not only split the Tory party and lead to at least one Cabinet resignation, it would also — according to one senior Cabinet minister — lose the support of 40 MPs who voted for the deal on Tuesday night.
Mrs May is not keen on the idea either. She thinks having an independent trade policy is one of the main economic benefits of Brexit.
For these reasons, she is emphasising to Tory MPs that she doesn’t want to give way on the customs union.
One minister tells me: “The penny is dropping with her about what the effect on the party and membership would be of going for a customs union. It is potentially devastating.”
Labour cooling on second EU vote
THE Labour leadership is turning more and more against a second referendum.
I am told Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer is becoming more isolated on the issue within the Shadow Cabinet. There is also less pressure than expected from MPs on Jeremy Corbyn to back a so-called People’s Vote. Just 71 of Labour’s 256 MPs have broken ranks to endorse the idea.
John McDonnell, who previously sounded open to a second referendum, is now more interested in “Norway Plus” as an alternative Brexit position.
Without the Labour leadership’s support, a second referendum will have no chance of getting a majority in the House of Commons.
So what’s the plan?
So what’s the plan? Well, the hope is Tory Brexiteers will realise the whole thing could be stopped and all but a hard core of them will come round.
“The Brexiteers are now looking for solutions,” one Secretary of State tells me.
This would leave the Government needing the support of 30 to 40 Labour MPs. This would be difficult but potentially doable.
One Cabinet minister who has had discussions with Jacob Rees-Mogg thinks there is a growing chance that with some progress on the backstop, he could be persuaded to back the deal. That would give cover to a lot of other Tory MPs who voted against the deal on Tuesday to do the same.
But there is a growing view among those close to this week’s discussions that Article 50 may well be extended. In other words, the UK would not leave on March 29.
It had always been the view that the EU would only agree to an extension if it was clear where that would lead. But ministers believe there are now signs the EU would be prepared to grant an extension, albeit with conditions. They reason that the EU would not want to be responsible for triggering No Deal.
But simply extending Article 50 with no idea of what to do next would only delay the issue, not resolve it.
What is certain is that Cabinet divisions over what to do next will only grow.
Ministers who want to stop No Deal have formed their own group, which meets to plot strategy. At the same time, other Cabinet ministers and No10 are becoming increasingly irate with them.
One member of Mrs May’s circle dismisses them, saying: “These people are Remainers inside the Cabinet.”
While one exasperated Cabinet insider complains: “Do they just not get the politics of this?”
These arguments will only get more heated as the clock ticks down to March 29.
MOST READ IN OPINION
Conservatives’ election concern
A GROWING group of Cabinet ministers think we are heading for an election, as this might be the only way to break the Brexit logjam.
One obvious problem for the Tories is what their Brexit policy would be in the event of a poll.
And as one Cabinet minister warns: “You can’t deselect half the party. That’s ridiculous.”
For this reason, the Tories couldn’t simply run on Theresa May’s deal. But if their plan was for Mrs May’s deal but with a clearer exit mechanism on the backstop, most Tory MPs could support it.
Interestingly, some Cabinet ministers are optimistic that an early election could see the Tories win back their majority.
Gove hits back
MICHAEL GOVE’S blistering attack on Jeremy Corbyn left some Labour MPs looking distinctly uncomfortable. They know he’s right about Corbyn and national security.
Gove’s speech impressed many of the 2015 and 2017 intakes of Tory MPs, who have never seen a parliamentary performance quite like it. It revealed a Tory problem, though.
It wasn’t so much a case for having confidence in this Government but for having no confidence in Corbyn.
When the next election comes, the Tories will need a positive message too.
Ringing round this week, I was told “Labour would struggle in a pure Brexit election” and “Corbyn is less of an unknown quantity now” than he was at the last election. Others are more sceptical, though.
One cautions: “As a Conservative, you have to ask yourself who wants an election. That’s why it is not a good idea.”
No10 is keen to stamp on the idea.
One source tells me it is “not something anybody wants to do”, warning that: “The public wouldn’t thank us for it.”
Call to put trust in young
THE Tory Party needs to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. It needs to develop a domestic agenda at the same time as sorting out Brexit.
But too few Tories are thinking about what comes after Brexit. This is a mistake that could open the door to a Corbyn government.
Something nearly always beats nothing.
Liz Truss is one of the few Tories thinking about what does come next.
In a speech next week, she will urge her party not to abandon young voters to Corbyn. She will argue their desire for control over their own lives makes them natural Tories.
So how do the Tories show they are down with the kids?
Truss’s answer: Take on vested interests and advocate “lifestyle freedom”.
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator
https://textbacklinkexchanges.com/brexit-talks-in-westminster-have-so-far-yielded-no-breakthrough-and-pm-is-stuck-in-a-hole-with-very-few-solutions/
News Photo Brexit talks in Westminster have so far yielded no breakthrough and PM is stuck in a hole with very few solutions
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